I was confronted at an analyst conference about six weeks
ago about rumors that we were talking to The Mills
Corporation. The standard lawyers' scripted response is
"We don't comment on market rumors," but I answered,
"Sure, we're talking to them." That confirmation was big
news, which I must say I find a little strange. Of course
we're talking to them; that's our job. We talk to lots of
people about lots of things; that’s also our job. And by the
way, everybody else in mall-land and opportunity-fundland
and even hedge-fund-land is also talking to them.
Just for fun, we were recently playing with some numbers.
We do that a lot. Our New York Office segment had 2005
EBITDA of $341 million. This number represents a 15.6%
return on our original cost of all these assets. First point—
on average our income from these assets has more than
doubled since we acquired them. Second point—if New
York cap rates are, say, 5%, we have more than tripled our
money here, a mark-to-market profit of over $4.5 billion.
A group of us (including John Goff and Ron Burkle) were
reviewing comparable values for companies in the
industrial sector, where it is apparently common practice
to bundle merchant building profits in FFO. That got me
thinking. Our practice, as executed by Chief Financial
Officer Joe Macnow, is kind of the opposite. We go to
great lengths to allow the reader of our financial statements
to "deconstruct" our earnings. This transparency (and
our multi-segment approach) makes for very thick financial
disclosure, but it is worth it.
While we are on accounting—accounting is the only zero
tolerance game that we play. Zero tolerance means no
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mistakes and no shading, ever. A business franchise and
reputation built up over a lifetime can be squandered with
even just one serious accounting misstep. Thanks to Joe,
Ross Morrison, Matt Iocco and the entire Zero Tolerance
Gang in Paramus.
It's a global world now. Almost every major country in the
free world will soon have copycat REIT legislation—several
already have. Ditto for securitized CMBS. The transfer
from private to public securitized real estate took about 15
years in America. My guess is it will take about only onethird
as long in non-American markets. Cross border tax
treaties will be slower to come, but are even more important
to create a global real estate market.
Housing seems to be slowing. Some call it a bubble; I
don't know. There is too much supply in many markets
and housing prices seem to have entered the sticker
shock phase. But, the market for scarce income producing
investment grade real estate, however, continues to thrive.
As I've said for many years in this letter—scarce investment
grade real estate has been re-priced and today's
prices, give or take, will hold—get used to them.
There has been an epidemic of public to private transactions
in real estate at premiums and in size. This seems to
support the conclusion, with which we agree, that public
market trading prices are cheap to private values.
And, think about this—the increase in rents which we
expect is largely still in front of us.
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